Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
